Macro Overview
- U.S. Unemployment Rate (Monthly) :The U.S. unemployment rate came out at 4.1%, higher than the expected 4%, which is seen as positive for the crypto space.
- U.S. Fed Chair Powell’s Speech Highlights: Fed Chair Powell noted significant progress on inflation, with solid economic growth and a strong labor market. Prices are beginning to return to a disinflationary trend, and the goal remains to bring inflation to 2%. He emphasized the need for more positive data and warned that unexpected workforce weakening could prompt a response.
- U.S. Job Openings (Monthly): U.S. job openings came out higher than expected, which is negative for the crypto market due to their historically inverse relationship.
- U.S. FOMC Meeting Minutes Highlights: Participants saw the May CPI as progress towards the inflation target, noting decreased price pressures in product and labor markets. Some suggested that the funds rate might need to rise if inflation stays high. Concerns were raised about greater unemployment if demand weakens further. Respondents reported modest progress towards the 2% inflation target and stressed readiness to respond to economic weakness, viewing the current policy stance as restrictive.
- Solana DEX Jupiter (JUP) Listing on Upbit: Solana DEX Jupiter’s native token, JUP, has been listed on Upbit, a major South Korean crypto exchange. The listing initially boosted the token’s price, but it later retraced, showing a lack of sustained demand—a common trend seen with Upbit listings recently. Traders should be cautious of this pattern when reacting to such news.
- Top Token Unlocks to Watch in July:Here’s a list of the top token unlocks for July:- Altlayer (ALT): $122.79 million
– Aptos (APT): $79.28 million
– Uniswap (UNI): $77.88 million
– Arbitrum (ARB): $75.37 million
– Sui (SUI): $70.16 million
– Immutable X (IMX): $50.13 million
– Sei (SEI): $44.42 million
– Starknet (STRK): $44.16 million
– Ethereum Name Service (ENS): $39.46 millionToken unlocks can have varying effects depending on the token. Increased supply often leads to selling pressure, potentially causing price declines. However, if the market has already priced in the unlock, the impact may be minimal. Traders should stay informed about these unlocks to gauge their potential market impact.
“Big Picture: Upcoming Weeks’ Key Economic Events”
| DATE | TIME | EVENT | USUAL EFFECT |
| July 9 | 7:30 PM | US Fed Chair Powell Testifies | More dovish than expected is good for crypto |
| July 11 | 6:00 PM | US CPI y/y | Actual’ less than ‘Forecast’ is good for crypto |
| July 11 | 6:00 PM | US Unemployment Claims | Actual’ greater than ‘Forecast’ is good for crypto |
| July 12 | 6:00 PM | US PPI m/m | Actual’ less than ‘Forecast’ is good for crypto |
Note: “Events in red font signify severe impact, while those in yellow indicate moderate.”
Bitcoin Technical Analysis
Summary:
- The current sentiment around BTC is neutral.
- This week, the crypto market faced continued downward pressure, exacerbated by selling from the defunct exchange Mt. Gox. Macro data was mixed, contributing to market uncertainty. Technically, BTC lost key support levels and EMAs, hovering slightly above $55,000. The next few daily closings will determine whether the market trends further down or reverses. A period of sideways consolidation is expected, potentially leading up to the CPI figures, which historically have been positive for the crypto market in recent months. Traders should monitor these developments closely for market direction.
- Key support levels to consider are around $53,600, $51-$52,000 and $47,250. On the upside, resistance levels is at $60,000 , $63,000 & $67,000.
- It is advisable to evaluate potential entry points around the mentioned support levels for long entries and at resistance levels for short entries. Additionally, setting limits to manage potential losses is prudent.
- For profit-taking, strategically selling near the outlined resistance levels/support levels is a recommended approach. Always exercise caution and implement sound risk management practices in trading endeavors.
Ethereum Technical Analysis
Summary:
- The current sentiment around ETH appears neutral.
- This week, ETH underperformed BTC as ETF hype waned and Solana ETF hype gained traction. Technically, ETH bounced back from strong support at $2,800 (50% Retracement) and is currently hovering above that level. With BTC dominance rising, ETH is expected to underperform BTC in the coming days.
- Significant support levels include $2800 and $2650, while resistance levels to watch are at $3130 and $3465.
- These levels play a crucial role in determining potential price movements. It is advisable to evaluate potential entry points around the mentioned support levels for long entries and at resistance levels for short entries. Additionally, setting limits to manage potential losses is prudent.
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