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            State of the Crypto Market

            “VIP Exclusive: Dive into News, Macro Insights, and Crypto Analysis!”

            4 Oct 2024 | 6 min read

            Table of Contents

            Toggle
            • Macro Overview
            • Crypto Markets Overview
            • Top Tokens Update
            • “Big Picture: Upcoming Weeks’ Key Economic Events”
            • Bitcoin Technical Analysis
            • Ethereum Technical Analysis

            Macro Overview

            • US Unemployment Rate: The unemployment rate came in lower than anticipated, which is bearish for the crypto market due to the historical negative relationship between the two. In previous instances, following the release BTC and the broader crypto market have experienced a significant drop.
            • US Non-Farm Employment: The Non-Farm Employment Change came in significantly higher at 254K, compared to the expected 147K. This is bearish for the market due to the negative relationship between the two.
            • US JOLTS Job Openings: The JOLTS Job Openings data came in higher than expected at 8.04 million, compared to the forecast of 7.64 million. This is bearish for the crypto market.
            • US Unemployment Claims: Came in at 263K, slightly above the expected 260K, reflecting a minor change and indicating a neutral impact on the crypto market.

            Crypto Markets Overview

            • Market Movement: This week, the crypto market experienced a -7.63% fall, bringing the total market capitalisation to $2.087 trillion. Notably, BTC saw a fall of -6.66% and ETH saw a fall of -10.83%. Bitcoin’s dominance stands at 58.12%, while Ethereum’s holds at 13.72%.
            • Geopolitical Risk Could Drive Investors to Gold & Bitcoin: JPMorgan analysts indicate that rising geopolitical tensions and the upcoming U.S. presidential election might push investors toward gold and bitcoin as safe-haven assets, a strategy referred to as the “debasement trade.” These analysts argue that such conditions could bolster both assets, which are commonly seen as hedges against economic and political instability.
            • Bitwise Files Registration for a Spot XRP ETF: Bitwise has filed for a spot exchange-traded fund (ETF) to provide investors exposure to XRP. Chief Investment Officer Matthew Hougan confirmed the registration with Delaware’s Department of State.
              This is significant as no spot XRP ETF has been approved by the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC), which has been engaged in a legal battle with Ripple over the classification of XRP as an unregistered security.

            Top Tokens Update

            • Grayscale Launches Aave Trust for Investor Exposure: Grayscale Investments has introduced the Grayscale Aave Trust, offering eligible individual and institutional accredited investors exposure to the governance token Aave. Aave is a decentralized finance (DeFi) platform that facilitates crypto borrowing and lending through smart contracts. Rayhaneh Sharif-Askary, Grayscale’s Head of Product & Research, emphasized the trust’s potential to revolutionize traditional finance by optimizing lending and borrowing, eliminating intermediaries, and reducing reliance on human judgment.
            • XRP Drops 9% Following SEC Appeal in Ripple Case: XRP’s price fell by 9% after the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) announced its intention to appeal a 2023 court ruling that classified XRP as non-security when sold to retail investors on exchanges. This decision followed Ripple’s partial victory last summer in a protracted legal battle with the SEC. The ruling by U.S. District Judge Analisa Torres was seen as a significant win for the crypto sector. However, the court noted that while XRP is not deemed a security in retail transactions, it remains classified as an unregistered security when sold to institutional investors.
            • Franklin Templeton Launches Onchain Money Market Fund on Aptos: Franklin Templeton has launched its OnChain U.S. Government Money Fund (FOBXX) on the Aptos blockchain in partnership with the Aptos Foundation. This fund allows institutional investors to access FOBXX assets in digital wallets via Franklin Templeton’s Benji Investments platform and BENJI token. The initiative aims to enhance the interoperability of treasury-backed assets across various blockchain environments. Bashar Lazaar, head of grants at the Aptos Foundation, highlighted the importance of connecting traditional finance (TradFi) with decentralized finance (DeFi) and bridging EVM and non-EVM networks.
            • Taurus Partners with Chainlink to Boost Tokenized Asset Adoption: Swiss-based Taurus has teamed up with Chainlink Labs to accelerate the adoption of tokenized assets within financial institutions. This partnership will leverage Chainlink’s platform to enhance tokenized assets using real-world data, ensuring compatibility across different blockchains. Taurus will incorporate Chainlink’s data services for market prices, reference information, and identity verification. Additionally, Chainlink’s Proof of Reserve feature will provide transparency by confirming that reserves are accurately represented. The collaboration also includes the integration of Chainlink’s Cross-Chain Interoperability Protocol (CCIP), which facilitates the transfer of tokenized assets across various public and private blockchains.

            “Big Picture: Upcoming Weeks’ Key Economic Events”

            DATE TIME EVENT USUAL EFFECT
            Oct-9 9:15 PM US SEC Chair Gensler Speaks –
            Oct-9 11:30 PM US FOMC Meeting Minutes More dovish than expected is good for crypto
            Oct-10 6:00 PM US CPI y/y Actual’ less than ‘Forecast’ is good for crypto
            Oct-10 6:00 PM US Unemployment Claims Actual’ greater than ‘Forecast’ is good for crypto
            Oct-11 6:00 PM US PPI m/m Actual’ less than ‘Forecast’ is good for crypto

            Bitcoin Technical Analysis

            Summary:

            • The current sentiment around BTC is Neutral.(Sideways)
            • Bitcoin faced a sharp decline due to rising Israel-Iran war tensions and unfavorable macroeconomic data. Currently, BTC is projected to form a new higher low, likely in the $57K-$58K range, before resuming its uptrend. If support holds, a new higher high towards $70K could be on the horizon. For now, expect a sideways movement in the upcoming week as the market digests the recent events.
            • Key support levels to consider are around $59400 and $57700. On the upside, resistance levels is at $63000 & $64500.
            • It is advisable to evaluate potential entry points around the mentioned support levels for long entries and at resistance levels for short entries. Additionally, setting limits to manage potential losses is prudent.
            • For profit-taking, strategically selling near the outlined resistance levels/support levels is a recommended approach. Always exercise caution and implement sound risk management practices in trading endeavours.

            Ethereum Technical Analysis

            Summary:

            • The current sentiment around ETH appears neutral.
            • ETH dropped significantly last week, underperforming BTC. It needs to hold above the $2,200 support; otherwise, a further decline could follow. For a stronger bullish confirmation, ETH must reclaim the $2,800 resistance. Given this, ETH is expected to exhibit sideways to choppy momentum in the upcoming week unless it decisively breaks through these key levels.
            • Significant support levels include $2000 and $1925, while resistance levels to watch are at $2700 and $2800.
            • These levels play a crucial role in determining potential price movements. It is advisable to evaluate potential entry points around the mentioned support levels for long entries and at resistance levels for short entries. Additionally, setting limits to manage potential losses is prudent.

            Disclaimer: “The information, advise and/or views provided on this page are that of the author or company and are for informational purposes only. The Platform does not intend to: (i) an offer, or solicitation of an offer, to invest in, or to buy or sell, any interests or shares, or to participate in any investment or trading strategy, or (ii) to provide accounting, legal, or tax advice, or investment recommendations, or (iii) make any representation of any kind, express or implied, on accuracy, availability, reliability or completeness of the same. Note Crypto products and NFTs are unregulated and can be highly risky. There may be no regulatory recourse for any loss from such transactions. AT NO TIME WILL THE PLATFORM BE LIABLE FOR YOUR USE OR RELIANCE OF THE SAID INFORMATION, ADVISE AND/OR VIEW WHICH IS SOLELY AT YOUR OWN RISK.”

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            Chitra Dhusia
            Chitra Dhusia

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